After two months of the redshirt protesters occupying critical parts of central Bangkok, it seems the government is finally going to follow through on its countless promises to disperse them. But they will not go quietly.
Troops went in last night to begin setting up a perimeter, eclipsed by the assassination attempt on Seh Daeng. Nobody has claimed responsibility, and although an army sniper (under government orders or not) would be the obvious guess, some have suggested that it was an inside job by the Reds – either because he had become a problem, or in order to frame the government and generate sympathy… The truth is probably far stranger still.
Today, the army have completed the perimeter, and are closing in on the center.
As journalist Andrew Marshall says:
Army strategy: encircle Rajaprasong.
Red strategy: harass the army.
With troops shooting live rounds at will, expect a high bodycount.
The problem is, after the government agreed to do pretty much everything the protestors have demanded, the red leaders still refused to disperse. Whoever is pulling the strings clearly doesn’t want this to end peacefully. With much of the commercial district having now been crippled for months, and schools in the area due to start the new term next week, the government now has little choice but to force a dispersal.
But even if the reds are dispersed, they are hardly likely to go home and forget about the whole thing. Whether they are in it for the politics, or in it for the money (I suspect both are well represented), they will surely strike again.
When the pro-Thaksin government was in power, the yellow-shirts protested until the government fell. Now that the anti-Thaksin government is in power, the red-shirts seem determined to do the same, whatever the outcome at Rajprasong. If that comes to pass, surely another Red government will be protested, and the whole thing will once again come full circle, with nothing to show but more injuries and deaths?
Clearly something needs to change in Thailand. I’m just not sure what – or how.
What needs to change is you come home now please. In case you hadn’t noticed there’s a fuggin army marching towards you.
This is home – and the army is actually marching away from me…
Of course I’ll scarper if it looks like it’s going to get anywhere near my part of town, but Bangkok is a *BIG* city – far bigger than London, for example.
I failed to notice the Toxteth riots due to my being a few miles up the road. And similarly, I have only noticed the current Bangkok situation from reading the news – same as you.
I can’t see the end to this either unless there is a real leader hiding somewhere in the midst of the Thais.
And hey – I am not on your Blogroll!!!!!
APCs rolling in now. New post soon.
The “peaceful protesters” are peacefully burning buildings and peacefully firing on the army.